Bitcoin Volatility Comes Alive Ahead of PCE Inflation Data: Crypto Daybook Americas

Crypto Daybook Americas will not be published on Monday due to the Labor Day holiday. It will return on Tuesday.

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped nearly 3% to $109,800 in the past 24 hours, pulling the broader market, including ether (ETH), down with it. But those losses are nothing out of the ordinary, meaning major tokens are trading near recent valuations.

What’s new today is that BTC’s volatility is bouncing from recent multiyear lows (See Chart of the Day). The 30-day implied volatility, as represented by Volmex’s BVIV and Deribit’s DVOL indices, has surged above the 100-day simple moving average for the first time since mid-June. Perhaps the price turbulence that some traders predicted for August may unfold in September.

The increase could be noteworthy for stock traders as an early indicator of a potential uptick in Wall Street’s VIX. The VIX is inversely correlated with stocks, suggesting there’s of a rough day ahead on Wall Street, a possibility underlined by fiat liquidity dynamics.

“Market liquidity pressures are mounting as reserve balances decline and large Treasury settlements approach, leaving equities vulnerable despite lower volatility,” Michael Kramer, the founder of Mott Capital Management, wrote in the latest edition of the firm’s markets update.

One piece of data to keep an eye on is the U.S. core PCE release, due later today.

“This PCE release will shape the Fed’s future easing path rather than the September decision itself,” analysts from crypto exchange Bitunix wrote in an email. “If data comes in at or below expectations, risk sentiment can hold; but if significantly hotter, the Fed’s forward guidance may shift toward a ‘one-and-wait’ stance. Investors should focus on core services and wage trends, alongside U.S. Treasury yields and the DXY as key drivers of risk appetite.”

In the event of a soft CPI, ether may outperform because traders have been increasingly focusing on Ethereum’s native token. That’s evident from the ETF flows. This week, the U.S.-listed ETH ETFs have registered a net inflow of over $1 billion, SoSoValue data show. That’s close to double the $567 million entering the bitcoin ETFs.

In traditional markets, the spread between the U.S. 10- and two-year Treasury yields has risen to the highest since September 2022. The so-called curve steepening supports the bullish case in gold and bitcoin. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • Aug. 29, 2 p.m.: The Stellar Development Foundation will host a livestream on X to discuss how NEAR Intents will enable new DeFi use cases on the Stellar blockchain.
  • Aug. 30: Conflux (CFX), a layer-1 blockchain focused on high throughput and Ethereum compatibility, will activate its v3.0.1 hard fork network upgrade at epoch 129,680,000 introducing 8 enhancements to improve EVM compatibility, fix bugs and optimize performance. Node operators must upgrade before Sept. 1 to ensure network compatibility.
  • Sept. 1: Starknet (STRK), a layer-2 scaling product for Ethereum, will introduce its v0.14.0 mainnet upgrade featuring decentralized sequencing, subsecond transaction pre-confirmations and an EIP-1559 fee market to improve speed and decentralization.
  • Sept. 3, 10:15 a.m.: Tellor (TRB), a decentralized oracle network that operates as an Ethereum layer-2 blockchain, will upgrade its mainnet to version 5.1.1. The upgrade improves network performance and node operation, enhancing Tellor’s role in providing off-chain data to Ethereum smart contracts.
  • Sept. 4: Polygon will switch its mainnet token to POL from MATIC. Holders of MATIC on Ethereum, Polygon zkEVM or centralized exchanges may need to take action.
• Macro
  • Aug. 29, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases July consumer income and expenditure data.
    • Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 2.8%
    • PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.6%
    • Personal Income MoM Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. 0.3%
  • Aug. 29, 11 a.m.: Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) releases July unemployment rate data.
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 8.9% vs. Prev. 8.6%
  • Aug. 30 – Sept. 1: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) — a Eurasian intergovernmental alliance focused on regional security, economic cooperation, and political coordination — holds its 25th annual summit in Tianjin, China.
  • Sept. 1, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases August Brazil data on manufacturing and services activity.
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 48.2
  • Sept. 1, 11 a.m.: S&P Global releases August Mexico data on manufacturing and services activity.
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 49.10
  • Sept. 1, 11 a.m.: Peru’s National Institute of Statistics and Informatics releases August consumer price inflation data.
    • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.23%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 1.69%
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • none in the near future

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • GMX (GMX) is voting on approving a recurring monthly treasury swap to support the expansion of GMX Solana. Voting closes on Aug. 30.
  • Sonic (S) is voting on a potential U.S. ETF listing and building a strategic reserve to strengthen the balance sheet of a Nasdaq-listed vehicle. Voting closes on Aug. 31.
  • dYdX (DYDX) is voting on whether to approve the v9.0 software upgrade. Voting ends on Aug. 31.
  • Aug. 29: TON (TON) to host ask me anything with Atomic Wallet on TON’s role in Telegram’s growth at 7 a.m.
  • Aug. 29: IOTA (IOTA) to host monthly call on the mainnet upgrade at at 9 a.m.
  • Aug. 29: Basic Attention (BAT) to host X spaces event on paywalls at 1 p.m.
  • Aug. 29: NEAR Protocol (NEAR) and Stellar (XLM) to host livestream on new DeFi use cases at 2 p.m.
• Unlocks
  • Sept. 1: Sui (SUI) to release 1.25% of its circulating supply worth $153.1 million.
  • Sept. 2: Ethena (ENA) to release 0.64% of its circulating supply worth $25.64 million.
  • Sept. 5: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.27% of its circulating supply worth $13.26 million.
  • Sept. 11: Aptos (APT) to unlock 2.2% of its circulating supply worth $48.18 million.
• Token Launches
  • Aug. 29: CeluvPlay (CELB) to list on KuCoin, Gate and MEXC.
  • Aug. 29: Camp Network (CAMP) to list on Bithumb.
  • Aug. 29: Kori (KORI) to list on KuCoin.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB15 for 15% off your registration through Sept. 1.

• Aug. 29: Bitcoin Asia 2025 (Hong Kong)
• Sept. 3-4: CONF3RENCE (Dortmund, Germany)
• Sept. 3-5: bitcoin++ (Istanbul)
• Sept. 4-5: ETHWarsaw 2025 (Warsaw)
• Sept. 4-6: Taipei Blockchain Week (Taiwan)
• Sept. 5: Bitcoin Indonesia Conference 2025 (Bali)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• Solana (SOL) posted a 44% drop in second-quarter application revenue, sliding to to $576.4 million from $1 billion in the first quarter even as its DeFi sector expanded, according to Messari.
• The downturn reflects weaker profitability across key decentralized apps. Pump.fun (PUMP) still led with $156.9 million, but was still down 44% as memecoin frenzy cooled.
• Axiom was the outlier, surging 641% to $126.6 million, showing how fast protocol-specific growth can offset broader ecosystem weakness. Jupiter (JUP) earned $66.4 million (–16%), while Phantom and Photon were hit hardest with declines of 65% and 72%, respectively.
• Despite revenue losses, DeFi TVL on Solana climbed 30% to $8.6 billion in the quarter and has since crossed $11 billion, cementing the chain as the largest DeFi network behind Ethereum.
• Kamino Finance drove TVL growth, up 34% to $2.1 billion after introducing Kamino Lend V2, which attracted $200 million in deposits and $80 million in loans within three weeks. Kamino now controls 25% of Solana’s market share.
• Raydium staged a strong comeback, rising 54% to $1.8 billion in TVL, reclaiming second place from Jupiter. It now commands 21% share versus Jupiter’s 19%.
• Trading activity, however, told a different story: Average daily spot DEX volume fell 45% to $2.5 billion, reflecting a fading of the memecoin momentum that had fueled the previous quarter’s records.

Derivatives Positioning

• Open interest (OI) in futures tied to the top 20 coins, excluding SOL, has decreased in the past 24 hours, indicating broad-based capital outflows.
• SOL’s open interest, however, hit a record high 63.84 million, alongside a rally in the token’s price to $217, a level last seen in February.
• The eight-hour funding rates for ether, tron and BNB flipped slightly negative, indicating a bias for bearish bets on a drop in prices. Funding rates for other major tokens were steady at around zero, indicating neutral sentiment.
• OI in the CME bitcoin futures slipped to 135.72K BTC, the lowest since April, while ether OI remained elevated at record highs near 2.10 million ETH. The divergence suggests a continued preference among investors for ETH over BTC.
• On Deribit, downside bias in BTC options has strengthened across all tenors, with puts trading at a five volatility premium to calls at the front end. ETH options display similar dynamics, marking a shift from bullish positioning early this week.
• On Paradigm, block flows featured call selling and put rolling strategies in BTC and ETH. Market maker Wintermute pointed to demand for call spreads in the December expiry BTC options.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 1.87% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $109,828.05 (24hrs: +1.95%)
• ETH is down 2.66% at $4,013.41 (24hrs: -5.69%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 2.52% at 4,168.55 (24hrs: -3.73%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps at 2.92%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0056% (6.0992% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.14% at 97.95
• Gold futures are down 0.18% at $3,467.90
• Silver futures are down 0.54% at $39.49
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.26% at 42,718.47
• Hang Seng closed up 0.32% at 25,077.62
• FTSE is down 0.27% at 9,192.27
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.52% at 5,368.49
• DJIA closed on Thursday up 0.16% at 45,636.90
• S&P 500 closed up 0.32% at 6,501.86
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.53% at 21,705.16
• S&P/TSX Composite closed unchanged at 28,434.80
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.07% at 2,770.74
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 1.8 bps at 4.225%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.32% at 6,496.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.47% at 23,657.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.34% at 45,551.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.41% (+0.25%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03954 (-1.35%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 978 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $53.73
• Total fees: 3.3 BTC / $371,906
• CME Futures Open Interest: 135,720 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 32.2 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 9.11%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows XRP’s price is stuck within the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a clear directional bias in the market.
• A move below the cloud would confirm a bearish trend shift, opening the way for a deeper decline.
• The price has already established a downtrend since peaking at $3.65 in July.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $308.47 (-0.16%), -1.53% at $303.75 in pre-market
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $130.94 (+2.78%), -0.69% at $130.04
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.51 (+0.41%), -2.08% at $24
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $64.43 (+0.7%), -2.5% at $62.82
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.96 (+0.69%), -2.26% at $15.60
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.8 (+1.84%), -1.88% at $13.54
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.35 (+1.06%), -1.74% at $14.10
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.55 (-0.31%), -1.26% at $9.43
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $29.67 (+1.23%), +0.78% at $29.90
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $26.16 (-4%), unchanged in pre-market

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $338.84 (-0.94%), -1.84% at $332.60
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $30.63 (+0.23%), -0.2% at $30.57
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $18.46 (-4.2%), -3.14% at $17.88
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $8.09 (-1.58%), -5.32% at $7.66
• Mei Pharma (MEIP): closed at $5.2 (+0.78%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $178.9 million
• Cumulative net flows: $54.34 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $39.1 million
• Cumulative net flows: $13.7 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.6 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

• Volmex’s BVIV index, which represents bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility, has risen above the 100-day simple moving average for the first time since April.
• The uptick could be an early indicator of an impending rise in Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, the VIX index.

While You Were Sleeping

• China Says Stronger Ties With India Is in Interest of Both Sides (Bloomberg): China’s Foreign Ministry said Xi’s 2024 meeting with Modi restarted relations, stressing there was no “secret diplomacy” and that both sides are resuming dialogue while seeking a long-term strategic framework.
• Stand Up to Trump on Big Tech, Says EU Antitrust Chief (Financial Times): The European Commission’s executive vice president said Brussels may walk away from a new trade deal if Trump demands weakening of the bloc’s Digital Services Act and Digital Markets Act.
• Bitcoin Bull Market May End Early, Warns Key Indicator, But Flows Continue to Lean Bullish (CoinDesk): RSI, a key momentum gauge, suggests bitcoin’s rally may be running out of steam, but large trades in options markets suggest many investors are still betting on gains into year-end.
• Bitcoin Headed to $190K on Institutional Wave, Research Firm Says (CoinDesk): Tiger Research argues record liquidity, ETF accumulation and Trump’s 401(k) order give bitcoin its strongest institutional setup in years, though weak retail activity and on-chain signals show risks remain.
• IREN Posts First Full-Year Profit on AI Cloud Growth, Mining Expansion; Shares Climb (CoinDesk): The company reported a $86.9 million profit on record $501 million revenue, with bitcoin mining generating $1 billion annually and the AI cloud unit set to reach $250 million in annualized revenue by year-end.
• A Tariff Loophole on Cheap Imports Has Closed. How Will It Affect Shoppers? (The New York Times): From today, individuals and businesses in the U.S. can no longer receive packages under $800 tariff-free from abroad, a change set to raise shopping costs and disrupt supply chains.

In the Ether