XRP’s July Uptrend Threatened as Bitcoin’s $120K Price Resistance Holds
This is a daily analysis of top tokens with CME futures by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.
Bitcoin: Rangeplay continues with MACD teasing bearish flip
Bitcoin (BTC) hit a record high above $123,000 on July 14, before entering a period of consolidation. Prices have since been range-bound between resistance at $120,000 and support at $116,000, with bulls once again failing to establish a foothold above the former in the past 24 hours.
This choppy trading, along with the flattening of the intraday moving averages and the daily MACD histogram hinting at a bearish shift, has increased the risk of a pullback. Still, the uptrend line from the June lows remains intact, keeping hopes alive for a bullish resolution that could lead to new record highs.
- AI’s take: Bitcoin is showing weakening momentum as it consolidates below the $120,000 resistance, with the MACD histogram hinting at a potential bearish shift.
- Resistance: $120,000, $123,181.
- Support: $116,000, $115,739, $111,965.
XRP: July bullish trend threatened
Like BTC, XRP (XRP) has lacked clear directionality lately, trading choppy between $3.35 and $3.65. What has changed in the past 24 hours is that the trendline representing the price rise from $2.2 to record highs has been breached, strengthening the case for a bearish resolution of the recent range play.
Further, the spread between Bollinger bands has widened to levels that presaged the December correction. Bollinger bands are volatility bands placed two standard deviations above and below the asset’s 20-day simple moving average.
In case the lower end of the recent range fails to hold, there would be a risk of an extended down move.
- AI’s take: While the Bollinger Band spread at a multi-year high points to extreme volatility and a coming breather, the breach of the uptrend line warrants caution for bulls.
- Resistance: $3.65, $4
- Support: $3.35, $3, $2.65.
Ether: Consolidation likely as Bollinger Bands widen
Ether’s (ETH) sharp ascent from its June lows near $2,200 has paused this week, with prices pulling back to $3,600 from a high of $3,850. A short-term consolidation in a broad range looks likely, as the daily chart’s Bollinger Bands have widened to their highest level since April-May 2021.
This widening is a classic technical signal that the market has experienced a period of extreme volatility and strong directional movement, suggesting it may now be due for a period of ranging or a “breather” before its next major move. This view is supported by the 14-day relative strength index, which has topped in the so-called overbought or above-70 zone.
- AI’s take: Ether’s rally has pushed its RSI above 70 and widened its Bollinger bands to their highest level since 2021, both signaling an extremely overbought market.
- Resistance:$4,000, $4,109, $4,382.
- Support: $3,480, $3,081, $2,879.
SOL: Looks north
Solana’s SOL (SOL) has pulled back to under $200 as of writing. Still, the bull case remains intact, as suggested by the upward-sloping intraday and daily chart moving averages.
The Bollinger Bands have widened to their highest level since the first quarter, ending a prolonged low-volatility coil to suggest bullish directionality. Additionally, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) appears on track to move above the 200-day SMA in what’s known as the bullish golden cross.
All of this suggests that SOL could tap the upper end of the rising channel with a potential move to $215 and higher.
- AI’s take: The price action is contained within a well-defined ascending channel, demonstrating that the rally from the April lows is a strong and consistent uptrend. The recent breakout to the upper half of this channel further reinforces the bullish momentum.
- Resistance: $218, $252-$264.
- Support: $187-$185, $163 (the 50-day SMA), $145.
